Overhyped? Digital Health Executive Anti-Predictions For Healthcare In 2024

Healthcare’s EHR-dependent data ecosystems, limitations of generative AI, and tough financial headwinds will continue to present challenges in 2024, say health IT execs, in this year’s anti-predictions round-up.

Will General Catalyst’s plans for health system acquisition come to fruition in 2024? Will generative AI (GenAI) live up to its hype as healthcare’s ultimate complexity liberator?

With equal parts caution, skepticism, and carefully guarded optimism, healthcare and health IT executives weigh in with their anti-predictions – i.e., what we might not see happen the year ahead – with some common themes prevailing.

On the near-term impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare, Doug Hirsch, co-founder and chief mission officer of GoodRx, dismisses the notion that tech like AI or virtual reality can make healthcare more affordable. Instead, says Hirsch, “collaborations and scalable technologies that reduce the cost and complexity of healthcare will have the most impact in the year ahead.”

Evidation’s executive board chair Deborah Kilpatrick’s message to generative AI (GenAI) developers? “Remain vigilant” when it comes to safeguarding against bias, as the industry’s “system generated” data ecosystem – built on EHRs – will continue to present challenges.

As for the persistent financial headwinds and operational complexity facing health IT purchasers, these will also continue, say executives, reshaping both how vendors approach selling and how buyers define value creation.

Below, stakeholders from across the health tech universe share what’s just hype, where there’s hope, and what we can expect to remain the same in 2024.

What’s not going to change in healthcare in 2024?

Health IT purchasing will remain a complex and resource-intensive process that clinicians stand to influence, and generative AI product developers must proceed with caution to prevent bias and promote health equity.

• “The intricate and frequently exhausting nature of healthcare IT buying decisions will persist in 2024. Decision-making will remain lengthy, involving multiple stakeholders and proving challenging for vendors to navigate. ‘Nice-to-haves’ won’t make the list this year — rather, trusted partners with deep expertise solving problems related to data and infrastructure will become the focus.” Graham Gardner, CEO and Co-founder, Kyruus

• “Health systems will remain in crisis. The scarcity of workforce and archaic nature of the workflows is at a crisis point.” Sonia Millsom, CEO, Oxeon
• “Physicians will continue to hold significant influence in the business of healthcare — beyond just the clinical issues. While some decisions about the digital tools they use may be ultimately made by others, physicians continue to exert important power in making the final decisions.” Mark Thierer, CEO and Co-founder, Waltz Health
• “Member antipathy towards their health plan. The (relatively) short era of broad networks, ample benefits choices and improved access will be replaced by a return to the pre-ACA era of attempted cost controls through network and benefits restrictions.” Owen Tripp, CEO and Co-Founder, Included Health

• “Product makers for generative AI applications in healthcare must remain vigilant to prevent propagating bias due to legacy access issues being manifest in clinical data. There are entire segments of the population, and their care journeys, that aren’t broadly represented in the EHR–i.e., in the “system-generated” data universe. Product makers must continue to pursue ways to account for, and mitigate, this kind of bias while the whole ecosystem continues to create equitable solutions to access in the first place.” Deborah Kilpatrick, Executive Chair of the Board, Evidation
• “The pace of investment in AI, specifically in GenerativeAI. Integration of AI into health systems will continue to progress at a measured, cautious pace, rather than a dramatic surge.” William Chan, CEO and Co-founder, Iodine Software

What has been overhyped in 2023 that is unlikely to have an impact in 2024?

There is still much skepticism when it comes to AI’s near-term impact in healthcare, as well as General Catalyst’s purchase of a hospital in 2024:

• “Solving the issue of healthcare affordability isn’t going to happen using virtual reality or artificial intelligence. While AI and VR took the world by storm in 2023, collaborations and scalable technologies that reduce the cost and complexity of healthcare will have the most impact in the year ahead.” Doug Hirsch, Co-Founder and Chief Mission Officer, GoodRx
• “The feverish hype around generalized AI models is poised for a crash in 2024. Vertical applications of AI will take the lead and be a lot more valuable. And, despite the buzz in 2023, the envisioned thought of ‘Open AI can as a non-profit entity,’ I believe, won’t hold true.” Abhinav Shashank, CEO and Co-founder of Innovaccer
• “AI offerings that lack comprehensive, actionable real-world data as well as the appropriate safety/security guardrails around AI functionality. AI is only as good as the data it leverages.” Michael Alkire, President and CEO, Premier Inc.

• “The idea that AI-enabled care pods will become the, or even a, place where people will enter in droves to get cared for. Before we create new places for care access and delivery, we really need to make the current settings much more reliable, connected, personalized and enabling – when it comes to leading people to quality and supporting them longitudinally.” Owen Tripp, CEO and Co-founder, Included Health
• “While we will certainly see a flurry of AI startups in healthcare, we won’t see any broad success in new foundational model development beyond the tech behemoths (e.g., Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta). The scale and capital required to compete is just too great.” Nick Stepro, Chief Product and Technology Officer, Arcadia
• “Chat GPT-4 [will crash] in healthcare once CFOs understand the associated computing cost and clinicians understand that a large language model (LLM) doesn’t ‘understand’ anything and what it has memorized may not be accurate, which could be a problem in life-or-death situations.” Hal Andrews, CEO and President, Trilliant Health

• “Sorry, doctors will not be replaced by bots just yet. Budget constraints, macroeconomics, and consumer behavior are all driving the shift to digital-first care delivery, but I’m sorry to report that health and human services still need humans in 2024.” Dan Brillman, CEO and Co-founder, Unite Us
• “AI related advancements in home care will likely come slower than many believe in 2024. It won’t be due to perceived liability risk —- rather, careful adoption and expansion of AI use that is done responsibly with the right oversight and controls. In addition, the size and benefits of AI in care in the home are likely far greater than most believe beyond 2024.” Chris Bradbury, CEO, Integrated Home Care Services
• “While many in the healthcare industry will recognize the potential of AI in the future, the exacting nature of clinical care and healthcare administrative functions will prove a challenge for early stage AI efforts.” Graham Gardner, CEO and Co-founder Kyruus
• “The rapid expansion of new Medicare Advantage plans may be nearing its peak in 2024. While the sector has grown significantly, the focus is shifting towards operational excellence, consolidation, and prioritizing member experience rather than welcoming new entrants. Look for existing plans to optimize their offerings, streamline processes, and merge to create larger, more efficient entities.” Neil Patel, Head of New Ventures, Redesign Health

• “I don’t think the General Catalyst hospital play will have an impact in 2024, but that’s because it takes time to make meaningful progress at that scale. I do think they’ll make an impact in years going forward. I am really excited about them making that jump, and generally support efforts to shape healthcare that require long-term (more than a year) investment to play out.” Lauren Morrell CEO and Co-founder, Willow Health
• “Decentralized clinical trials. The reality is that it is virtually impossible to treat patients requiring complex care in their homes. In 2024, we’ll see the idea of decentralized trials be replaced with new solutions, like bringing trials to research centers in patients’ communities to keep them close to home and preserve important patient/physician relationships.” Kourosh Davarpanah, CEO and Co-founder, Inato